Pakistan under attack

Discussion in 'The Pavilion' started by godzilla, Nov 30, 2018.

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  1. godzilla
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    godzilla Talented

    May 12, 2016
    2,572
    A little while ago amongst the discussions about the new government and Pakistan, there was much speculation as to what the new era will bring, and it is a new era.

    New lines have been drawn between Pakistan and its old allies, the USA in particular, with a new-world socialist government in place in the form of the PTI, which is a manifestation of the Bernie/Corbyn socialist type movements afoot elsewhere. For the first time in decades, puppet PMs incentivised to execute policies of foreign governments are gone, and a new government claiming to hold the public interest at the heart of its policy is in. This means an end to mercenary activities, and an end to the corrupt diversion of assets both human and physical away from infrastructure, utilities and indebtedness.

    A strong pakistan will mean 1) an economic power house = an unwelcome competition for neighbouring states 2) a confident and self sufficient state from the point of view of security, meaning they will not be a mercenary force for other countries' foreign policy = far more expensive for foreign countries like the USA to execute their foreign policy objectives in the region 3) a balancing pivotal strategic presence, critical for both sides of the new world order = the country goes from being prey for big international players, to the bride that is wooed by big international players, something that will be far more expensive for historic allies who were used to getting their way by intimidation.

    In addition to the a change in philosophy and its unwelcome arrival for foreign actors like the USA and India who have used Pakistans previous governments as their pet dogs to instruct, order and kick, the new government has inherited a critical financial crisis born of abject financial mismanagement.

    Both of these paradigms present real and present risks for Pakistan, which I think we are already witnessing.

    The reason that Pakistan is so important is because of 1) its trade access for China etc 2) its critical security strategic geographic location in terms of its proximity to China, Russia and Iran = one side of the new world order, vs USA, EU, Khaleeji ME + minions being the other side of the new world order 3) it is a nuclear state with the seventh most populous nation on the planet, with decades underinvestment in its economy and human capital setting the scene for a potential economic power house.

    I predicted in one of those threads a while ago that Pakistan would face a three pronged attack from foreign powers motivated to bring the country back in line. Because the opposition party leaders have their whole families and wealth tied up in these foreign countries, expect them to act as willing traitorous agents for foreign actors wishing to damage any prospect of reformation and resurgence for the people in Pakistan.

    There are precedents to all these attacks that we have already seen around the world, so I think they are inevitable.

    The three fronts for attack will be:

    1) Economic - precedent = Greece. Inheriting a mountain of debt, a huge deficit, and an imploding export economy, Pakistan is severely vulnerable to the consequences of this looming bankruptcy. The effects of a bankruptcy are exponential inflation, as a result of an inability to borrow, and a chronic devaluation (see: Zimbabwe) - which in turn means massive social poverty, unrest and revolt. The attack will be pressure on lending states and institutions not to lend to Pakistan. We are seeing this to some extent by way of the USA threatening the IMF not to help, foreign friendly countries promising help, but then the details being foggy. this problem - there is absolutely no doubt - was created by the previous three governments.

    This economic frailty allows for am extremely vulnerable, poverty riddled society which can then be attacked in two other ways:

    2) Exacerbation by way of currency raids - precedent = Turkey, Russia. In the past few years we have seen currency manipulation throwing both these countries' economies into crisis, with very little information on how these devaluations came about. Indebvted developing nations largely hold debt in US$ and generate their income in local currencies, so when the currency is devalued, they all move toward insolvency. In the case of Russia in particular it was corporate, not national debt that was exposed. They are resourceful and big enough that after a couple of years of difficulty, they managed to re-fnance their corporate debt to local currencies, thus negating the effects of currency raids. In turkeys case, it is only after their pastor was released that the pressure has eased - coincidence? perhaps not. its not that a pastor is all that important, its the principle of demonstrating that they will have to obey orders.

    Everyone will have seen the currency devaluation of the PKR. Some of this is a genuine rational result of proximity to bankruptcy thanks to the PPP/PMLN and their cack-handed economic incompetence, but expect there to be more, exaggerated, inexplicable movements. I dont know if this is just conspiracy or not, but its strange that the PKR was hit so hard today (https://tribune.com.pk/story/1857300/2-rupee-hits-record-low-us-dollar-rs142-inter-bank-trading/) when yesterday a deal for close proximity in security was agreed with Russia (https://tribune.com.pk/story/1856603/1-islamabad-moscow-agree-upgrade-bilateral-ties/). perhaps a coincidence, perhaps a warning.

    Along with the economic weakness of a currency raid, comes the opportunity of social subversion:

    3) Manufactured social unrest - precedent = Turkey, Egypt, Iran etc. The new model of warfare is to manipulate a country's own people to do the attacking and damage, motivated by economic weakness and social media. The west and Israel are experts at this, and there are plentiful documented reports of how influential they have been in people's revolts over the past decade or so. In turkey it was the alleged Gulenite coup which almost succeeded, but has resulted in a stunted, totalitarian police state in Turkey. In Egypt, it was the Sisi concluded revolt against Morsi, since a democratically elected Ikhwan government was not in the interests of the west and Israel. And in Iran it was the green movement of a few years ago, which failed to get off the ground because the Iranians are well ahead of the game.

    The Asia Bibi issue from a couple of weeks ago felt very much like this to me. It was an outsized response to an issue which isnt all that important which seemed surprisingly well orchestrated.



    So there you have it, a long and boring thread, but I felt like I wanted to get some thoughts down, and especially after the currency raid today, which seemed to be consistent with this convoluted conspiracy theory. Time will tell if its correct or not. Either they succeed, and we get another Pakistani Sisi/MBS type chamcha in power, probably via one of the two corrupt dynasties, or the intelligence of the government and resolve of the people will hold out over what is almost inevitably some very, very rough waters on the horizon.

    One will be a disaster for the people, and a continuation of the country as a banana republic rife with crime, filth, death and terrorism aided by internal media and ex-government traitors, and the other will be a model third world country readying itself for the tectonic changes about to grip the new world order.
     
  2. Del
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    Del Cornered Tiger

    Dec 21, 2016
    10,872
    Good thread @godzilla .

    I understand gist of your post, I concur all three.

    Economically Pakistan is struggling - no wonder, huge deficit which current government has inherited from preceding government doesn't help either.

    Therefore, to improve things going forward, sitting government is trying to heed toward increasing exports. Of course it wouldn't happened in snap of a finger.
     
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2018
  3. godzilla
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    godzilla Talented

    May 12, 2016
    2,572
    its frustrating to hear current affair anchors talk about currency manipulation and stock market fluctuations like they know anything at all about it. ive heard pretty much everyone say that people made billions on the back of the last devaluation of the rupee last week, but in the same programmes that 2mm$ is all the was transacted in the forex exchanges on the move, versus normal 4mm$.

    I dont believe those numbers for a second, but if I did, how the hell do people then make billions on the back of it? they haven't a clue, its totally ridiculous.
     
  4. godzilla
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    godzilla Talented

    May 12, 2016
    2,572
    im going to toot my horn and say I was right so far.
     

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