Pakistan's problem is not just corruption

Discussion in 'The Pavilion' started by iho, Mar 21, 2018.

  1. iho
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    iho Cricistan Poster Of The Fortnight [2 Apr - 16 Apr] Poster of the Fortnight

    Aug 7, 2010
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    Why is Pakistan unable to compete with India or the countries in the region. Is it just corruption that is a single reason why we are left behind. If IK becomes the PM, will we become HK or Dubai or our GDP will touch double digits. Nothing will change unless the political instability and terrorism is brought to end. Country needs foreign investments to grow and to be able to improve its exports. Who will invest in a country where governments are weak and unstable. If PTI comes in power there will still be those deep state elements who would try to destabilize the govt for their vested interest. So the problem is just not corruption. The political instability is the root cause of all failures and indirectly corruption. independent research has proved this theory in the third world countries
     
  2. godzilla
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    godzilla Emerging Player

    May 12, 2016
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    no. the issue is not political stability. greece had political stability, so did Portugal, Ireland and Italy - it didn't stop those countries going into the toilet. it was financial mismanagement and corruption that did.

    what evidence do you have that political stability will suddenly make the country HK or dubai? on terrorism I agree, but there has been stability there thanks to the army for a couple of years.

    political stability, on the contrary has marched the country towards leakage of billions of dollars, massively exploding debt burden, rising unemployment, worsening educational standards, deteriorating exports, collapsing foreign reserves and an accelerating breakneck pace toward insolvency and a failed state.

    if IK or another non-corrupt government comes into play, things will probably get worse in the short term - because that corrupt liquidity that the current government has stolen from the people by way of foreign deals like CPEC will go. there will be lots of short term pain, that will be necessary for medium and long term recovery. the alternative is things becoming massively worse in the short, medium and long term. have a look at Egypt as another example. the biggest problem will be this public attitude of immediate gratification after decades of excess. Morsi got in, that short term pain started to bite because the IMF suspended support and short term liquidity (backed by western and gulf interests despite their empty love for democracy), the people revolted and here they are with Mubarak 2.0 with no sovereignty, and the people essentially enslaved to the whim of international creditors in Saudi and the usa. any revolt is met with death.

    this isnt even opinion, its mathematical fact, just look at the debt burden and working capital balance - all these numbers are easily available online.

    foreign investment is not the end goal, thats a corollary either of opportunities to steal, or for structural growth. domestic economic sustainability is the goal, and with that will come foreign investment.

    the reason foreigners are not investing currently is not the security situation or political instability - this level of political stability was hardly different in the past, in fact foreign inflows flourished when there have been coups. foreigners are not investing because the economy is about to collapse thanks to the PPP and PMLN and their amateurish policies over decades. it has nothing to do with dharnas and protests for a few months which is what they will try to blame it on to the ignorant, its based on decades of over borrowing and underinvesting and out and out robbery.

    as a last example, look at this latest amnesty deal the current government has put in place. allowing billions that have been stolen (estimated at $130bn or more) to be repatriated scot free. its a joke.

    the following website is an economic data site which will provide most of the data you might need and is easy to navigate if you want to see for yourself:

    https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/capital-flows
     
  3. iAd
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    iAd Sultan of Swing

    Nov 9, 2012
    16,706
    What @godzilla said. There are plenty of stable countries who aren't doing well at all. This whole deep state narrative is overblown as well. Maybe in the past but not anymore. The army only has control over Defence & Foreign Policy today and the latter one only so because PMLN ignored it for the majority of its term. The establishment didn't interfere in criminal justice reform, economic reform or any other government function except defence and foriegn policy for the last decade. And in the end the tenure of both ruling parties led to worsening conditions for our country. The deep state narrative is just a tool for supporters of the PPP, PMLN & MQM to blame their failures on the military. Which is ironic since two of the three named parties were created by the deep state and flourished in dictatorships.
     
  4. iho
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    iho Cricistan Poster Of The Fortnight [2 Apr - 16 Apr] Poster of the Fortnight

    Aug 7, 2010
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    Its just a myth that stolen money is the root cause of Pakistan down fall. So NS was involved in money laundering back in 90's or some kick backs in govt project. Do you thing if we retrieve all that money with interest would be sufficient to get country back on track. Check this research conducted on the political instability and its impact on economy.
    http://ce.vizja.pl/en/download-pdf/id/386
     
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  5. godzilla
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    godzilla Emerging Player

    May 12, 2016
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    youve written two things here, firstly that stolen money is not related to the downfall of pakistan, and then a study allegedly supporting a focus on political stability as the root cause for economic volatility.

    firstly, why is it a myth that stolen money is the root cause of paksitans downfall? ive given you hard facts on the working capital situation, and referenced similar situations of greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal as evidence that very obviously and mathematically, when you run out of reserves and you have to pay huge interest bills on your debt, you go bankrupt. im not making a comparison between pakistan and greece in terms of politics - its simply an illustration of a universal principle that if you cant pay your debts you go bankrupt and we have seen how that applies on an international level.

    your response is not to address any of the factual numbers, but simply to state "its a myth". is that the extent to your argument? and yes, bringing back $130bn+ of stolen money will help the country much more than the approaching $1bn a month current account deficit, immanent need for further high cost funding, and impending economic implosion.


    secondly, on the study you linked, have you read this link, or are you just forwarding it because you've picked it up from some nooras trying to stupidly defend their indefensible position?

    (i) the most embarassing thing about this bullshit, is that by their very own definition in that study, pakistan is a politically stable nation. the definition of political stability that they used for their study is on page 51. in it theyve also stated that the measures that they use for political stability are entirely subjective, and the measures they use for corruption are entirely subjective for the reasons they highlight. so these measures are essentially meaningless.

    (ii) secondly on page 54 they show how the projected impact of the variables are insignificant. even if there is causality, its so small given they are modelling the whole society on three simple ill defined variables - that any correlation is meaningless.

    (iii) the study is about west Africa, not pakistan. it has nothing whatsoever to do with pakistan. even they claim again and again, because of the subjectivity in point (i) above, that it applies only to west Africa.

    (iv) even if you reject all of that, from the study itself, bottom of page 54 "Moreover, corruption is more important than political instability in explaining shocks to economic development in the short and long term." which totally argues against the point you are making, and emphasise the point me and @iAd were making.

    (v) even if you reject all of that, they say "This result implies that political instability Granger-causes economic development" (page 53) which again argues AGAINST your point - political instability has a POSITIVE economic impact, not a negative one. just to be clear, they say it multiple times throughout the document, for example, page 55 "In sum, the empirical results indicate that there is positive causality running from political instabil- ity to economic development in the short term "

    (vi) finally, and this is the funniest part of it, in their 'Conclusions and Recommendations' section on page 56, they say "Political instability is the most important variable accounting for shocks in corruption, while corruption is the most important variable accounting for shocks in political instability and economic development."

    perhaps you want to read that again : " corruption is the most important variable accounting for shocks in.. economic development". the exact opposite of what you were attempting to show lol.
     
  6. abc_to_xyz
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    abc_to_xyz Youngsta Beauty

    Nov 20, 2016
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    Its the character of people. Corruption is only a single trait of us. We are not made to live like a self-sustaining nation. We do need danda of Britains to keep things in order.
     
  7. iho
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    iho Cricistan Poster Of The Fortnight [2 Apr - 16 Apr] Poster of the Fortnight

    Aug 7, 2010
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    One very good example is that of neighboring India, despite of having huge corruption during the congress govt between 2000-2010, India progressed economically. During last 70 years India has been politically stable, however their ruling ministers have been involved in billion of RS in corruption, yet the country has gradually progressed in the right direction. India is ranked at 81st place out of 180 in corruption index yet the country has done so much better than Pakistan. Point is that yes corruption is a problem and country’s economy loses significantly because of corruption but it is not the primary reason for country to not progress. If countries are political stable then they continue to progress despite of high corruption index.
     
  8. godzilla
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    godzilla Emerging Player

    May 12, 2016
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    the link you sent suggests it is exactly the primary reason. again, why dont you substantiate WHY you claim it is not?

    the comparison with India does not work without knowing exactly what the measure is for corruption, and in what way their relative corruption is comparable.

    even if you are right (without linking any evidence) that say indian politicians have been as corrupt as Pakistani ones, and have embezzled lets say $100bn for the sake of argument. well the Pakistani GDP is $284bn, so that would be equivalent of 35% of GDP. the indian GDP is $2,264bn, so that would be 4.4% of GDP. thats why as much as you want to keep trying, these comparisons do not work, and are irrelevant.

    this thread has been a total dismantling of your conjectures, using your own arguments.
     
  9. godzilla
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    godzilla Emerging Player

    May 12, 2016
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    ps, again to use your own argument, India is indeed 81 on that corruption index, pakistan is 118. how can you possibly think that they are both similarly corrupt?
     
  10. iho
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    iho Cricistan Poster Of The Fortnight [2 Apr - 16 Apr] Poster of the Fortnight

    Aug 7, 2010
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    I think you have missed the gist of this post. The main point is corruption is not the only or the primary reason for Pakistani problems. The main problem is political instability and terrorism followed by corruption. So corruption is a problem but not the primary problem. Also don’t know where did you come up with this number of $110 Bln. Did NS and AZ personally looted this money from national exchequer? I have never heard this anywhere in the media. My point will be proved once PTI will be in power and the political instability and leg pulling will paralyze all their efforts like has happened with all previous civilian governments
     
  11. godzilla
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    godzilla Emerging Player

    May 12, 2016
    776
    wow. ok it lets be very, very clear:



    "The main point is corruption is not the only or the primary reason for Pakistani problems"

    how do you know this? the link to that research paper directly contradicts this statement and claims "corruption is the most important variable accounting for shocks in political instability and economic development"





    "The main problem is political instability and terrorism followed by corruption"

    how do you know this? the link to that research paper directly contradicts this statement and claims "political instability has a POSITIVE economic impact"

    "So corruption is a problem but not the primary problem"

    says who?? certainly not the people who wrote the paper you referenced.






    "Also don’t know where did you come up with this number of $110 Bln"

    did I mention $110bn? I mentioned that an estimate was $130bn, and later in destroying your last nonsense about a comparison with India used $100bn as a round number to make it easier for you to understand. where did I get $130bn as an ESTIMATE? from every paper last week that reported on the latest PMLN scandal about an amnesty scheme to allow thieves and looters to bring back stolen wealth for no penalty, "A chartered accountancy firm has estimated the value of offshore assets held by Pakistanis at $130 billion." from:

    https://tribune.com.pk/story/1665240/2-pakistanis-likely-bring-back-5-billion-amnesty-scheme/

    also

    "According to an estimate, Pakistanis hold around $130 billion money in foreign countries and they have invested the ill-gotten money in businesses and properties besides keeping them in banks and other firms."

    https://tns.world/pakistan-may-bring-back-5-billion-through-proposed-amnesty/

    "He said that Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has said that Pakistanis have stashed 200 billion dollars abroad while a group of foreign investors has claimed that the money hoarded in foreign countries is 150 billion dollars."

    https://nation.com.pk/12-Sep-2017/p...ign-banks?show=previewutm_medium=PoliticsNewz


    shall I go on? perhaps you should read about the things you make ridiculous claims about.





    "My point will be proved once PTI will be in power and the political instability and leg pulling will paralyze all their efforts like has happened with all previous civilian governments"

    well if you and your kind have their way, good luck to you when your country goes bankrupt (I see you still havent addressed even one factual economic figure at all, like all nooras), institutions close down, the country becomes a failed state, there are widespread protests and riots for food, inflation goes hyper inflated like in Zimbabwe, and the country becomes a proxy playground to secure nuclear weapons between the usa and Russia because your heroes have bankrupted the country with theft and incompetent and deceptive economic policy.

    show me how you get out of the current economic trajectory of disaster in this stable political system of thieves and fraudsters?



    you have not only failed to substantiate your point of view, you have gone on to provide copious amounts evidence to show why your own point is totaly and utterly wrong. I think its you that doesnt understand what you have written. ill ask again, did you read that link you quoted?
     
  12. Donal Cozzie
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    Donal Cozzie Smooth Operator

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    [​IMG]
     
  13. iho
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    iho Cricistan Poster Of The Fortnight [2 Apr - 16 Apr] Poster of the Fortnight

    Aug 7, 2010
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    Pakistanis will continue to do corruption even if PTI is in power. The corruption index did not go down when Musharraf was in power.
    It seems you ignored this paragraph completely. This is the last paragraph in the conclusion - "The findings of this study suggest that years of political instability have contributed to the high rate of corruption and underdevelopment in ECOWAS countries. Researchers have confirmed that corruption increases with political instability (see Lederman et al., 2005; Leite & Weidmann, 1999; Park, 2003)."

    The 200 Bln stashed abroad is a collective corruption over the years both during civilian and non civilian governments, so there is no evidence to suggest that PTI getting into power will be able stop the flow of that corruption. President Musharraf ruled the country for 10 years, if that couldn't change corruption in the country then how do you think PTI government will be able to resolve this problem in the presence of political instability.

    Conclusion is bring anyone in the power by manipulations that is currently being done by the Pakistani deep state establishment, nothing will change unless there is a political stability in the country.

    BTW:You look petty when you write sentences like these "you and your kind", calling poster "nooras". Piece of advise is to focus on post and not on the poster. Your message will be more effective.
     
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2018
  14. godzilla
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    godzilla Emerging Player

    May 12, 2016
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    fair enough, my apologies for that. but it is frustrating when someone pretends to open a debate and then fails to address any of the points raised and keeps repeating some unsubstantiated assertions - a piece of advice to you, you wont be taken seriously if you dont do the courtesy of a response to someone who takes the trouble to read your writing.

    at this point, its quite obvious from your lack of response to the points raised that you are not interested in a discussion, and I have thoroughly and comprehensively debunked your assertions which are plain wrong. so I wont waste my time any further.
     
  15. iho
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    iho Cricistan Poster Of The Fortnight [2 Apr - 16 Apr] Poster of the Fortnight

    Aug 7, 2010
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    I don’t know what else you want me to substantiate. In general the Pakistani population is naive to believe that corruption is only problem facing the country but in reality it’s proved through research that political instability contributes to both corruption and terrorism. By the way the current PMLN government has not been accused or faced any corruption scandals in past 5 years other than this panamagate which is dated back 20 years. Also you did not answer on how PTI will be able to curb the overall corruption in the country without political stability when President Musharraf who being a non corrupt dictator was not able to eradicate this menace. Also you need to understand that I’m not trying to eliminate the impact of corruption on the country. The impact is huge as you have emphasized in your responses. What I’m trying to highlight is that political instability is a greater menace which is not even talked about by our General population or politicians like IK who wants to become PM at all cost even if it means destabilizing an elected govt.
     
  16. Disco Lemonade
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    Disco Lemonade Design Artist

    Dec 17, 2009
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    Leaders are from within us. For a Zardari and nawaz Sharif we did produce an Imran Khan. Although I do agree that most of our population supports hadharami, corruption etc. But we still have enough people to run this country like it should be run. But can we make them good and honest managers to manage our country? Imran khan is struggling to do that. Even in major cities forget the 70% of rural areas of Pakistan.

    This system has to be cleaned from the outside rather then from the inside.
     

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