The weird fluctuations in geopolitics

Discussion in 'The Pavilion' started by ComradeVenom, Dec 18, 2016.

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  1. ComradeVenom
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    ComradeVenom Tracer Bullet

    Jul 24, 2012
    6,508
    The Syrian conflict has probably been the only war in human history so far where so many players have fought in many different guises for many different goals.

    Unfortunately the Syrian people have been crushed and brought to their knees in a war game involving other countries and ideologies.

    Lets look at a few things in this thread.

    5-6 years ago Iranian regime was seen as the one regime who was pushing for the interest of the Muslim world on the Global stage. Sunni Muslims seemed drawn to Ahmedinejad and his rhetoric and he was the toast of the party.

    Hezbollah was widely applauded as having defeated Israel in West Lebanon and was used as an ideal to demonstrate how an efficient militant movement with social roots could gather together to tackle a superpower.

    America was wrong. Always. Interference in Arab world was seen as a destabalising force and frowned upon. Bush senior included Syria in the global axis of evil and we collectively saw through it and realised that they were trying to destabilise an Arab country that didnt fit in with American ideals.

    Al Qaeda was public enemy number 1 in the West.

    Fast forward some years.

    Al Qaeda is being funded by the west to take down Assad.

    Iranian Nexus is seen as the root of all Evil by Sunni World and Western World.

    The Russian spectre instead of being seen as a counterweight to US hegemony is seen as a nation that massacred Muslims.

    Muslims are applauding the crocodile tears of a US ambassador as she critices the Russian/Iranians for killing Children ( irony at its finest).

    Israel is standing up for the victims in Alepo.

    What a strange world we live in. The Saudi/Israeli/US axis has blood on their hands as they have rampaged across the middle east making sure neighbouring states are docile.

    Iranians and Russians have counteracted and now 4 Arab capitals are in Iranian hands.

    Enemies are now friends and friends are now enemies. Western Media is now unbiased and Russia Today is propaganda!

    This thread doesnt really have a point. The pictures from Allepo have pained me. What pains me more is how Muslims seem to have no idea how they are being crushed into submission by world powers...Sunni/Shia/Jewish/Christian world powers.

    There is no black or white here. Just a sea of hopeless grey.
     
  2. Markhor
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    Markhor Talented

    May 9, 2010
    2,701
    I haven't seen global politics in such a state of flux as today.

    One of the issues not getting discussed a lot is the internal situation in Saudi. If their Syria proxy war fails, which it looks like it will, then there may be serious repercussions in the House of Saud government.

    In Yemen, they are receiving international backlash for their aerial bombardment and the Houthis are yet to be decisively defeated. This week, the Obama administration halted the sale of nearly US$400 million of weapons to Saudi Arabia (of course the Saudis still have our democracy-loving UK government on a piece of a string).

    King Salman has Alzheimer's so he's not going to be around for long, and already people are talking about the succession battle with various factions vying for power. Prince Mohammed bin Salman is the young defence minister and he's quite hawkish, failures in these military campaigns would be hugely detrimental to his political credibility.

    Also, the Shias in the East of the country are growing restless.

    Not to mention with the oil prices plummeting, and the US becoming less dependent on Middle Eastern energy with domestic production increasing, the Saudis are finding themselves increasingly isolated - which could be dangerous.
     
  3. Top Spinner01
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    Top Spinner01 Tracer Bullet

    Feb 27, 2013
    7,516
    1) I think decline of the Kingdom is greatly exaggerated.The house of Saud will continue to lead the country, even if there is a battle for the throne it will be within the house (not from minority Shia living in far flung villages) having no significant effect on the overall style of governance.
    2) Regarding foreign policy i think we can relate their situation to that of Pakistan and Turkey..Pakistan can not afford ill intentioned regime in Kabul having loyalty to India__same Turkey-Kurds..The Saudis just can not sit and watch Iran sponsored militias takeover the neighbour countries..They will flex muscles wherever possible in the neigbourhood____ covertly and overtly..
    3) In syria they were expecting US to topple Assad..They were were caught off gaurd by imperious Russia..now they are on the backfoot (morally and militarily)___ just clutching at straws..
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 18, 2016
  4. Don Duckman
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    Don Duckman Tracer Bullet

    Apr 7, 2014
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    Your OP doesn't mention the paradigm shifting reality that is ISIS and its attacks on the west. Asad and Russia exploited this very well by focusing on the rebels rather than ISIS, knowing the west would take care of ISIS for them through Iraq and SDF.
    Even during the siege of Aleppo, they used troops from Palmyra which allowed ISIS to retake the city. The priority in the west has been ISIS and SDF over rebels for almost two years now, the defeat of Aleppo is mostly for Saudis and Turkey. Turkey more so because they have to contend with Kurd expansion.
     

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