What will be Pakistan's fate if this is true?

Discussion in 'The Pavilion' started by Del, Apr 11, 2019.

  1. Del
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    Del Cornered Tiger

    Dec 21, 2016
    10,105
    So I am hearing this in many talk shows and TV channels that according to the report of some International companies and local companies, they have discover oil and gas reserves in Pakistani waters (Kekra well) is among three highly prospective wells in the world.

    Report also states that Kekra well in Pakistani waters has pre-drill prospective resource estimates of 1.5 billion barrels of oil or equivalent.

    Other two prospective energy reserves reported by Rystad are the Shell-operated Peroba well off Brazil with pre-drill prospective resource estimates of 5.3 billion barrels of oil or equivalent and the Total-operated Etzil well off Mexico with pre-drill prospective resource estimates of 2.7 billion barrels of oil or equivalent.

    That said, if these wells prove successful than what will be the fate of Pakistan? We all know what US and other powers did with counties like Libya & Iraq, because of their energy reserves.
     
  2. godzilla
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    godzilla Talented

    May 12, 2016
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    pre- drill doesn't mean much - have to wait for the well head test once they get to the formation. I wouldn't read anything into this at all until its been proven to be commercially viable. you can have found tonnes of hydrocarbons, but if the formation/pressure/location doesnt suit, it can be abandoned because its not commercial.

    if I turns out it is commercial and productive, chances are it will take at least four or five years for it to come to market, again, depending on details. large, deep water and harsh water finds can take the best part of ten years from spud to commercial sales, and it will be less if its less harsh an environment, if equipment is available and infrastructure can be easily built - it will also depend on the gas vs oil content - gas is much more difficult to transport and sell than oil.

    finally, there is another consideration which is what happens to the coal deals the last government struck with china, and the LNG deals with Qatar? if this well is successful, it will be a much cheaper source of energy for Pakistan, but are they locked into more expensive contracts for energy in lieu of debt relief and investment?

    the us won't have any interest in the oil reserves of Pakistan, they are currently the largest producer in the world and are exporting oil - its a different paradigm since shale oil and fracking developed over the past ten years. India on the other hand will be deeply worried, because it will make pakistan significantly more competitive in terms of their manufacturing industry, inflation and budgetary considerations.
     
  3. Disco Lemonade
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    Disco Lemonade Design Artist

    Dec 17, 2009
    5,490
    If we really get the oil reserves, India should be our first buyer. Cheapest transit for them. India and Pakistan manufacturing industries can easily co exist since India does not take much share of Pakistan manufacturing industry. When Imran khan says trade between India and Pakistan can decrease poverty in both countries, it is not really a political statement. The benefits of India and Pakistan trade are huge.
     
  4. Saul Goodman
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    Saul Goodman Smooth Operator

    Jun 12, 2011
    3,312
    If its easily accessible, state owned and in abundance maybe itcan be used to lower state debt and maybe even dare i say it a Norwegian style sovereign wealth fund.
     
  5. godzilla
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    godzilla Talented

    May 12, 2016
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    just saw programme which said they are three weeks away from td - so basically, this could still turn out to be nothing at all - there is no information yet.

    that said, I did invest in pakistan yesterday for the first time in a while.
     
  6. Disco Lemonade
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    Disco Lemonade Design Artist

    Dec 17, 2009
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    i hope it is not property :|
     
  7. Del
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    Del Cornered Tiger

    Dec 21, 2016
    10,105
    Would you mind if I can ask what kind?
     
  8. godzilla
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    godzilla Talented

    May 12, 2016
    2,415
    I bought into the stock market with an ETF.

    It’s still I think high risk, but I had always planned to wait for a while after the elections for the economic measures to start biting before dabbling.
     
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  9. ComradeVenom
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    ComradeVenom Tracer Bullet

    Jul 24, 2012
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    Do you have more info regarding the ETF?
     
  10. godzilla
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    godzilla Talented

    May 12, 2016
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  11. godzilla
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    godzilla Talented

    May 12, 2016
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    that's a snap shot of whats going on, without the usual bs politicking by the opposition.
     
  12. Donal Cozzie
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    Donal Cozzie Tracer Bullet

    Nov 4, 2014
    7,192
    Can go two ways.

    Norway/saudi way - $$$$$$

    The Corrupt way - oil company approaches high profile politicans, who sign over the rights for a nice handy bribe
     
  13. godzilla
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    godzilla Talented

    May 12, 2016
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    too late for that, if they're already drilling, the economics of the split would have been decided years ago - its a function of up front cost split versus production split if commercial. these agreements have been globally utilised for decades, only questions is whether the Pakistani authorities utilised that and got a fair deal when negotiating the contract whenever they did it, presumably a year or so ago.

    I was offered to meet Musharraf by an american CEO of a company who was drilling in pakistan back a long time ago - so you are right, foreign companies historically bribed their way into concessions.
     
  14. godzilla
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    godzilla Talented

    May 12, 2016
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    looks like no commercial hydrocarbons were found....
     
  15. Disco Lemonade
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    Disco Lemonade Design Artist

    Dec 17, 2009
    5,490
    from imran's latest statement there still seems chances for gas to be found.

    he didnt talk about oil so i guess that is not found.
     
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